Farmers
Guardian - Brexit
As
we get closer to the end of October and with Parliament to be prorogued with
the royal orders stating that parliament will be
prorogued ‘no earlier than Monday 9th September and no later than Thursday 12th
September’. This paves the way for the government to hold a Queen's Speech ,
laying out its plans , on 14 October.
Despite this we still have only the three options regarding
the European Union that we have had for
a long time : Leaving without a deal,
leaving with a deal similar to, if not identical to, the one that has been
rejected three times by the house of commons or staying in the European Union.
We
will leave at the end of October without a deal , if nothing is done to stop
it,. There is a belief by some that it would be catastrophic for the economy
but others, many of whom voted to leave expect nothing to happen and for
Britain to continue to trade as we do today. With no-deal the UK would immediately leave the
European Union with no agreement about
the leaving process.
Overnight,
the UK would leave the single market and customs union - arrangements designed
to help trade between EU members by eliminating checks and tariffs . No deal
also means immediately leaving EU institutions such as the European Court of
Justice and Europol, its law enforcement body. Membership of dozens of EU
bodies that govern rules on everything from medicines to trade marks would end.
Under a no-deal Brexit, there would be no time to bring in a
UK-EU trade deal. Trade would initially have to be on terms set by the World
Trade Organization (WTO). Trading on WTO terms would also mean border checks
for goods, which could cause bottlenecks at ports,. No deal would also mean the
UK service industry would lose its guaranteed access to the EU single market.
Could
a variation of the rejected deal come forward dealing with the Irish border.
The European Union cannot allow another country, not in the customs union to
have unfettered access to European markets. What they fear would happen is that
goods would come into Britain and via Northern Ireland enter the European Union
without Tariffs or quotas.
Would
an agreement that the Northern Ireland backstop would only continue until an
ICT or technological solution can be found and that both the European Union and
the British Government are committed to achieving that as soon as is possible
allow the deal to be accepted. There has
been a belief that having a technological solution would be easy , generally
from people who have no idea how ICT works.
Staying
in the European Union is possible but it would be seen as a betrayal of the
electorate and could not be achieved unless we had a second referendum, which
even if desired could not be achieved by the end of October.
So
we are left with a straight choice of no deal or a variation on the deal three
times rejected by the house of commons which is not a good place to be.
Lots
of countries will happily offer us a free trade deal, it is what they want in
return that is frightening.
New
Zealand will want a free trade deal to include Lamb without any quotas
Australia,
Brazil and Argentina and many others will want a free trade deal to include
beef without any quotas
China
will want a free trade deal to include steel
and manufactured goods again without any quotas
The
USA will want to export beef but also to have the National Health Service
opened up to American corporations.
If
we leave without a deal we will be a different Country next year.
