what voters "know"

As people once “knew” that the earth was the centre of the universe and that the sun orbited the earth there are a number of political facts people “know” about Assembly members that are equally wrong.

1)      Assembly members only work three days a week. Whilst we may only attend the Senedd on three days a week all assembly members will work in excess of 40 hours a week and including travel time most will work in excess of 60 week. Monday which is a non Senedd day I started at 8:30 this morning delivering leaflets and I will finish at about 7:30 this evening at a PACT meeting.

 

2)      You can not get hold of an Assembly member. Most if not all Assembly members hold regular surgeries. On Friday this week I will hold four starting at 2:00 in the afternoon and finishing at 7:30. These surgeries are advertised in the local media, community centres and other places such as libraries and doctors surgeries.

 

3)      You cannot believe politicians promises. The only political promise I can in recent years remember being broke is the Lib Dems on tuition fees and they are continually reminded of that by other political parties and by political commentators. I do not like what the current Westminster government is doing but it is what the Conservatives said they would do.

Another Hung Parliament?

Whilst being too young to actually vote, the first election I campaigned in was the General Election of February 1974. Those old enough will recall that this was the last election (prior to the last 2010 election) where no political party won an absolute majority to govern in parliament alone.

In the years between elections and the run-up to elections since (with the exception of the post Falkland war period), there have been media and political commentators predicting a “hung parliament”; nine General Elections later, they were finally right!

There are fifteen Lib Dems seats which were either by-election victories (Brent East, now Brent Central), seats with a substantial student/recent graduate population (Cardiff Central), or former northern industrial seats (Redcar), that Labour will be looking to re-gain or win from them.

Electoral calculus is predicting the 2015 General Election will give Labour a majority similar to that in 2005. I am bemused by those commentators who believe the Lib Dems can lose over half their national vote yet not lose a single parliamentary seat. Of course, no matter what the result of the next General Election, a hung parliament will be predicted by these same commentators.

 

Lib Dem and Tory hypocrisy over free school meals...

What they said about free school breakfasts before it was Lib Dem/Tory policy to provide universal free lunches for infants:

THE WELSH TORIES…

The Conservatives said children were better off having breakfast at home with their families.

Tory AM William Graham said:

"This is not a moment to celebrate. Free school breakfasts have been exposed as a sham.

"Labour's pre-election gimmick was nothing more than an uncosted con designed to win cheap headlines and deceive parents and children across Wales.

 

"It is abundantly clear that the assembly government has been making it up on the back of a cereal packet as it goes along."

Former Tory education spokesman Paul Davies AM said:

"In such a difficult financial climate this is money which could have been used elsewhere within the education system rather than subsidising something that should be the responsibility of parents.”

THE WELSH LIB DEMS…

Liberal Democrat AM Peter Black said:

"The school breakfast initiative, although quite useful, it's going to cost a huge amount of money which might be better spent (if) the schools themselves had the choice of using that money."

Speaking to the party’s spring conference in 2007, Kirsty Williams AM attacked Labour and other parties for offering free giveaways rather than substantial plans for education. In singling out the free breakfast initiative, she declared it akin to “happy meal politics – a free toy with every vote”.

Will Plaid jump in bed with the Tories?

I was intrigued to read today’s Western Mail article where former MP Adam Price suggests that Plaid and the Lib Dems could form an Assembly coalition in 2016 after the next Assembly elections.

What's most interesting in the article is what he leaves unsaid; if there is to be a coalition Welsh Government post-2016, it will depend on both Labour winning less than half of the 60 seats up for grabs and the forming of an anti-Labour coalition by Plaid, the Lib Dems and, yes, the Conservatives.

This has been previously been attempted in 2007 when there were talks by the three parties to form a “rainbow coalition” in Cardiff Bay, but this subsequently failed to materialise. Adam Price further argues in the article that "it would be in the national interest to have a non-Labour administration next time."

Here’s a suggestion perhaps Adam and his Plaid colleagues may want to consider: If it's going to be the policy of Plaid to seek to form a coalition with the Tories and Lib Dems should they fall short of the “magic 31” seats needs to form a majority, then perhaps Plaid need to be upfront and honest with the electorate about their back-up plan before they go into the election. 

Winning the war on child poverty

We know that child poverty is associated with low educational achievement and that educational attainment is the best indicator of future income and health. The Welsh Government has two flagship schemes desgined to work towards reducing and eliminating poverty in Wales, known as "Communities First" and "Flying Start".

Communities First

Since becoming the Assembly Member for Swansea East in 2011, I’ve witnessed first-hand practical examples of Communities First programmes that have made a significant difference to the lives of many of my constituents. This has ranged from helping people find employment; helping people reduce their financial outgoings; to helping people improve their health and wellbeing.

Communities First supports the most disadvantaged people in our most deprived communities with the aim of contributing to alleviating persistent poverty especially inter-generational poverty.

The Welsh Government funded Communities First delivery teams work with residents, community organisations, business and other key agencies in the newly formed "clusters" and focus on actions leading to the long term sustainability and wellbeing of communities. It is based upon involving local people in all aspects of this work as an essential feature of the programme .Communities First aims to contribute to reducing the education/skills, economic and health gaps between the most deprived and more affluent areas in Wales. The pogramme has three strategic objectives helping to achieve these outcomes; these being "prosperous communities, learning communities and healthier communities".

The weakness is that each area is identified from its census data which can only be accessed at lower super output area level (LSOA).

These are a set of geographical areas developed following the census, initially to facilitate the calculation of the Indices of Deprivation. The problem is that where the area is not homogenous pockets of deprivation can be missed. Is there a better way of identifying areas of deprivation such as housing tenure and council tax banding because such relatively large areas as these can include both relative affluence and pockets of poverty?

Flying Start

Flying Start is a programme to create positive outcomes for children. The programme recognises that when some children start nursery school at three, they can be two years behind others in terms of development. 

It is incredibly difficult to reduce this gap over the eight years children are in primary education; this needs addressing before they start nursery school. The core elements of Flying Start are drawn from a range of actions that have been shown to create positive outcomes for children and their families. These include free quality part-time childcare for 2-3 year olds, an enhanced health visiting service, access to parenting programmes and early language development. The key is providing an opportunity for children to develop between 2 and 3 in such a way that they start school with development consistent with their chronological age.

Despite a change in the targeting approach from school catchment in phase 1 to LSOAs in phase 2 in Swansea, the model for the childcare continues to be located in Primary Schools (where possible) in order to achieve effective transition into the Foundation Phase.

This should make it easy for the benefits and impact to be identified. The criteria for identifying the Flying Start target areas is not the same as Communities First; Flying Start is based on the Income Benefit Household Data for 0-3 year olds in order to ensure that the programme is targeted effectively at young children.

To be eligible for Flying Start, the family or individual must meet certain criteria, such as being pregnant or have at least one child aged 0-3 years, and live within the catchment areas. First time parents or those who need particular help with parenting are identified through a health assessment, and appropriate support given for their needs. Again, this area based approach misses many children who live in areas outside the designated area who have the same or greater needs. It is imperative that action is taken to ensure that these children do not miss out.

 

My concerns...

Whilst the census area data catches most areas of poverty and children who need support, the problem occurs where there are either pockets of deprivation or more often where the boundary used is not a community boundary and so consequently an area alongside a porgramme area of equal or even greater need is missed.

I believe that either a greater flexibility is needed or that a better method of identifying those in need, especially for Flying Start, must be found. We owe it to our children to ensure that they all have an equal opportunity and that it does not become part of a post code lottery.