Scotland
would not be unique if it broke away from the rest of the UK or if it didn’t.
We have seen in recent years in Europe the splitting up of the old Soviet
Union, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia. More recently Sudan split into Sudan and
Southern Sudan. Quebec has twice rejected separation from the rest of Canada in
a referendum.
That
Scotland is large enough to be separate country is self evident as it is larger
than a number of other countries in the world. Strathclyde on its own is bigger
than Slovenia and almost five times the size of Luxembourg.
We have the
three big questions, currency, European Union and share of the debt.
We have a fairly recent example of an amicable divorce
by two countries when Czechoslovakia divided into the two new countries of
Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Initially the old Czechoslovak currency, the
Czechoslovak Koruna, was used in both countries following the dissolution of
Czechoslovakia on the 31 December 1992. However, by the 8 February 1993, the Czech
Republic and Slovakia had adopted their own national currencies in the form of
the Czech Koruna and the Slovak Koruna. At the beginning, the currencies had an
equal exchange rate, but later on the value of the Slovak Koruna was as much as
30 per cent lower than the Czech Koruna. The Czech and Slovak joint currency
lasted less than 40 days.What I have been unable to identify is countries
splitting up and then continuing with a joint currency for more than a few
years.
On debt we again have the example of the split in
Czechoslovakia when most federal assets and debt were divided in a ratio
of 2 to 1 (the approximate ratio between the Czech and Slovak population within
Czechoslovakia). The same would be
expected to occur and if it could not be agreed then we would need
arbitration. If after a split the debt
is left behind then it would be in the interests of every region in Europe to
split away and leave the debt behind causing another European banking crisis.
Would Scotland have to reapply to the EU and would it be
accepted? We need to look at this from a European perspective where many
European Countries have regions which have expressed a desire for independence
such as Catalonia and the Venice region of Italy. If a split can occur and
regions or nations can remain within the EU, then again the fragmentation of
Europe looks likely.
I am sure that there are those who see Britain as the
centre of the universe who will say things like “There is a
considerable difference between the global significance of Sterling compared to
the Czech/Slovak Koruna” or “how important sterling is as a currency”, or “EU needs Scotland”.
On September 19th we may start finding out
who is right regarding currency, debt and the EU.
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