Must Labour Lose?

Must labour lose?

Every time Labour loses a number of consecutive elections concern gets expressed over whether we can win again although previously it took more than two election defeats before the doom mongers came out. The opposite is also true and after Labour has won two or more consecutive elections there is a belief that we cannot lose.

In the 1950s Labour lost three consecutive elections with increasing Tory majorities at each election then it was said Labour could not win due to the increasing affluent electorate but Harold Wilson won in 1964, increasing his majority in 1966 with Labour governing for 11 out of 15 years between 1964 and 1979.

1979 until 1997 were 18 years of Tory rule as the neo Liberal policies of first Margaret Thatcher and then John Major took Britain far to the political right. Defeat, when victory was expected in 1992 led some to call for either a merger or an alliance with the Liberal democrats because Labour could never win alone. Of course Labour had a landslide victory in 1997.

In 2010 we had a minority Conservative administration put in power by the Liberal Democrats and a majority Conservative Government in 2015 and we have seen the defeatists already deciding that we cannot win including those predicting the voting preference of not only those not yet born but those not yet conceived.

We have had three changes of Government over the last 40 years and each followed an economic crisis. Working backwards 2010 followed the banking crisis of 2008, 1997 followed black Wednesday in 1992 and 1979 followed the high level of inflation and going to the international monetary fund for a loan in 1976.

Difficult though it is for those of us who live and breathe politics to comprehend the vast majority of people have limited interest in politics. Approximately one third of the electorate have no interest in politics and do not vote, even at General elections.  Except when there has been a major economic shock enough people think “the Government is doing ok” for Governments to be re-elected. It has been said many times Governments lose elections rather than the opposition winning them.

Assuming the continuation of fixed term parliaments the next two elections will be held in 2020 and 2025. Will Labour win one of these elections, neither I nor anyone else knows. Can Labour win one or both of these elections the answer is undoubtedly yes.

When elections are discussed there is a tendency to talk as if the electorate is the same at each election. Assuming a life expectancy of 80 and knowing that at 18 people become able to vote then approximately 8% of the eligible electorate at one election will be replaced by that number becoming eligible at the next.

To win the next election Labour needs to do five things

1)      Enthuse younger voters to vote

2)      Have an economic strategy that works for the many not the few

3)      Make people believe that voting matters and their vote can make a difference

4)      Appear as a party ready to govern

5)      Be united behind whoever is Leader

Following the inevitable shock to the economy firstly when Britain invokes article 50 and the greater shock when it leaves the European Union, the next election will be winnable, we just need to be committed to winning and ready to govern for the many not the few.